Why MAGA Geopolitics?

 

Is there any sense to the Trump Administrations Geopolitical actions: Insulting Allies, threatening to Invade Greenland, capturing the president of Venezuela, joining Israel to wage war against Iran, threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, etc., etc.? Certainly there are lots of reasons at different levels of analysis,*** but what about the World-System level of analysis?

My argument is that the MAGA movement is a response to the Decline of American hegemonic power in the World-System.

In this post, I'm going to explore the US Decline hypothesis.

The graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals)** from the USL20 Model driven by World System Input (W-Input). The model predicts growth-and-collapse, with collapse starting around 2060 (although growth rates start declining after 2010).

On the other hand, the graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals) from the USL20 Model BAU model. I interpret the Business-as-Usual (BAU) model as the System Theoretic implementation of the MAGA geopolitical agenda ("Go It Alone" with no input from other countries, regions or the World System). Notice first that the prediction intervals are much, much wider that the W-Input model. There is still a small probability of hegemonic collapse (the lower 98% prediction interval). In other words, the MAGA vision is exponential growth forever with only a slight chance, if any, for collapse. Given the width of the  USL20 Model BAU model prediction intervals, however, it is a very risky strategy. Donald Trump, at least, is someone who demonstrates a very high tolerance (if not complete disdain) for risk.

You can run the various USL20 Models on my Google Drive.

Notes

** US1 is an equal weighting of all the indicators variables defining the US State Space and created using Principal Components Analysis (PCA)--see the Boiler Plate.

*** Trump's declining mental health, a strong strain of stupidity in American politics, a new stage of Crony Capitalism, the extremist coalition that shapes Right-Wing politics in the US, etc. etc.

Italian Debt Crisis? The Sick Man of Europe?

 

Notes

Debt Index Codes

The US vs. Iran: What Are the Options?

The video above, from PBS News, covers the alternative scenarios the current US-Iran War. They missed one Scenario. Can you guess what it is? 

In this post, I'll summarize the video and then identify the missing scenario that I have covered in another post. Summary:

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Nuclear War Simulation: Israel vs. Iran

Among many confusing justifications for the US attacking Iran is the threat of Nuclear War. President Trump has made it repeatedly clear that "Iran Cannot Have a Nuclear Weapon". This rationale for War is based on the assumption that the US has some fundamental interest in a Middle East War. Aside from the disruption of Oil Supplies (which is already happening as a result of War), what would be the consequences for the US of a Nuclear War in the Middle East? This post explores that question.

The computer simulation in the video above maps out what might happen in the Middle East.

 

SOTU: ECON Index

 

Notes

SOTU ECON Measurement Model

ECON Codes

World Measurement Model

SOTU AIC Statistics

What's the Difference Between Liberalism and Neoliberalism?

 

Notes

ChatGPT

Feature	Liberalism	Neoliberalism
Time period	18th-19th century origins	Late 20th century
Primary goal	Broad individual freedom	Market efficiency & competition
View of the state	Limited but essential for rights	Minimal, facilitator of markets
Markets	Useful but not absolute	Central organizing principle
Social policy	Some support for welfare	Shrink welfare; use market mechanisms
Freedom	Civil and political freedom	Freedom as market choice
Attitude toward inequality	Liberties more important, but some thinkers favor moderation	Often accepts inequality as necessary

The State of the Union Address (SOTU)

February 24, 2026 President Donald Trump gave the State of the Union (SOTU) address for the first time in his Second Term. It was awful. In Google AI's summary:

This is not to say that Modern SOTUs have been much better. 

From the standpoint of Systems Theory, the state of a system has many meanings depending on the system being studied. In Political Science, the "State" is the geographic area controlled by a central government--a non-variable.  In Systems Theory, I like the following definition better:

The State of a system is the minimal collection of independent variables that explain the past and future path of the system.

As a place to start defining the State of the Union,  I asked chatGPT to describe what topics should be included in the SOTU:

It is too much to expect that any President would be able to address all the topics above and the ones omitted are most likely the ones where the Administration is failing!

My proposal would be for some entity outside of government to take each of the chatGPT topics separately, and focus on defining and reporting on the state of each subsystem (Economic, National Security, Domestic Policy, Democracy-Governance, and Social Issues) and then forecast the state variables for the Future Vision. The graphic above does this for US1, a summary Economic-Environmental state variable from the USL20 Model (see the full description here and in the Notes below).  

Notice that there are alternative futures based on alternative Geopolitical Alignments. Business-as-Usual (BAU) with the US continuing as the World Hegemonic leader produce unending exponential growth. Again, using Google AI:

Since the Trump II Administration seems to be stepping away from the Rules-Based World Order (RBO) there should be a democratic debate about the Trump II Administration's unilateral change in US Geopolitical Alignments. Instead, it is presented as a one-line "America First" slogan in the SOTU without prior Congressional debate or public input. 

For example, the forecast above shows that Geopolitical Alignment with the World System (W) would produce a Steady-State Economy in the US after 2050. Given the Environmental consequences (if not complete impossibility) of unending exponential growth,  the more reasonable idea of Limits to Growth should be debated with wide-spread public input. It is a Future Vision for the US and the World System!

I future posts, I will take each of the SOTU topics and develop a Measurement Model for each that allows the state variables to be forecast. The Measurement Model for the USL20 model is presented below and it should be scaled back to provide a reasonable SOTU Economy Index.

P.S. The Trump II Administration may actually be taking the US on a Random Walk, in which case the future is unpredictable.

Notes

You can run the R-code for the USL20 Model here.

USL20 Measurement Model

There are three component state variables in the USL20 model explain 90% of the variation in the indicator variables: US1 = (Growth - X - DPR - EPR - Q.OIL - O.BANKS - CAPU). 

USL20 State Indicator Codes

 

Data Sources: Mostly US Historical Statistics.