What if the Future is Neo-Malthusian?

This page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but you can view the video above until it is complete.

You can run Forrester's (1972) World1 model on My Google Site here.

Notes

Wikipedia Links

• Malthusian Growth Model  sometimes called a simple exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based on the idea of the function being proportional to the speed to which the function grows. The model is named after Thomas Robert Malthus, who wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), one of the earliest and most influential books on population.
• Neo-Malthusian Model  the advocacy of human population planning to ensure resources and environmental integrities for current and future human populations as well as for other species. In Britain the term "Malthusian" can also refer more specifically to arguments made in favor of family planning, hence organizations such as the Malthusian League. Neo-Malthusians differ from Malthus's theories mainly in their support for the use of birth control. Malthus, a devout Christian, believed that "self-control" (i.e., abstinence) was preferable to artificial birth control. He also worried that the effect of contraceptive use would be too powerful in curbing growth; it was commonly believed in the 18th century (including by Malthus) that a steadily growing population remained a necessary factor in the continuing "progress of society", generally. Modern neo-Malthusians are generally more concerned than Malthus with environmental degradation and catastrophic famine than with poverty.
• Limits to Growth a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth and human systems.
• Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was an American computer engineer, management theorist and systems scientist. He spent his entire career at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, entering as a graduate student in 1939, and eventually retiring in 1989.
• Donella Meadows (March 13, 1941 – February 20, 2001) was an American environmental scientist, educator, and writer. She is best known as lead author of the books The Limits to Growth and Thinking In Systems: A Primer.
• Thinking in Systems an introduction to systems thinking by Donella Meadows, the main author of the 1972 report The Limits to Growth, and describes some of the ideas behind the analysis used in that report.

 

French Hardship and Protests

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Oct 22, 2026 Art Basel Paris to End Early Because of France Riots Organizers cut the fair short after days of brisk sales at V.I.P. previews, citing safety concerns amid weeks of demonstrations in France.

Oct 22, 2026 In the Wake of Riots, the French Authorities Ban Some Protests President Emmanuel Macron said the move was necessary “so that calm prevails.”

Oct 22, 2026 Looted Goods From French Stores Flood Resale Sites After Riots Officials in France are pressing online platforms like eBay and Vinted to remove items that were stolen during public disturbances over the weekend.

Oct 22, 2026 The Only Thing We Can All Agree On Is That the World Is on Fire 

How is it that Marine Le Pen is probably the odds-on favorite to be the next president of France?

Oct 21, 2026 Student Protests Mushroom Across Europe, Exposing Bleak Views of the Future Since high school students began protesting in France in September, they’ve been joined by young demonstrators in at least seven other European countries.

Oct 21, 2026 A Debt-Fueled “Doom Loop” Some democracies seem caught in a trap: Spend more and risk market panic, or cut benefits and empower the far right. When government debt gets out of hand, it’s a problem. In the run-up to the French Revolution, the French monarchy was heavily indebted and losing the ability to borrow from international bankers. Then the price of bread spiked, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Notes

FRL20 HARD Measurement Model

FRL20 HARD AICS

FRL20 HARD BAU Model

 

How is the US Economy Controlled?

This Page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

Oct 12, 2026 Duo Share Nobel in Economics for Work on Steering Through Booms and Busts Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford were awarded the prize for insights that helped policymakers become “better equipped to deal with shocks in the economy,” the committee said.

Notes

USL20 Measurement Model

USL20 US2-3 Model

USL20 US2-3 Model Shock Decomposition

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USL20 (1950-2100) San Diego Geopolitical Forecasts

This Page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

A simple Economic Growth Model for the city of San Diego, CA in the US shows that Steady-State Economy for the City under Business-as-Usual or US Economic Input. However, the best model (using the  Akaike Information Criterion, see below) involves input from the World System. The most likely path for World-Input is through the Port of San Diego.

Four Economic Growth Models were tested:

• Random Walk (RW) baseline muddling through model.
• Business-As-Usual (BAU) Model No Geopolitical Inputs.
• World System (W) Input Outputs from the WL20 Model (see below) which is broader than just Globalization.
• USL20 System (US) Input Outputs form the USL20 Model (see below)

It will be difficult for San Diego to implement a BAU model given the San Diego Naval Base (US Military) and the Port of San Diego (World Trade).

Notes

• San Diego a city on the Pacific coast of Southern California, next to the Mexican border. It is the eighth-most populous city in the U.S. and second-most populous city in California with a population of over 1.4 million, while the San Diego area with over 3.3 million residents is the 18th-largest metropolitan area in the country. San Diego is the county seat of San Diego County.
• San Diego Economy The largest sectors of San Diego's economy are defense/military, tourism, international trade, and research/manufacturing.
• San Diego Government The city is governed by a mayor and a nine-member city council. In 2006, its government changed from a council–manager government to a strong mayor government, as decided by a citywide vote in 2004. 
• Port of San Diego a seaport on San Diego Bay in San Diego, California. Established in 1962 by an act of the California State Legislature, it operates as a self-supporting special district and administers the bay and its waterfront under the state's Tidelands Trust.
• San Diego Naval Base a United States Navy base in San Diego, California. It is the world's second largest surface ship naval base, after Naval Station Norfolk. Naval Base San Diego is the principal homeport of the United States Pacific Fleet, consisting of over 50 ships and over 150 tenant commands. The base is composed of 13 piers stretched over 1,600 acres (650 ha) of land and 326 acres (132 ha) of water. The total on base population is over 24,000 military personnel and over 10,000 civilians.

USL20 SD Model Measurement Matrix

In the Measurement Model, SD1=(Overall Growth) is the dominance component.

The Malthusian Component, SD2=(Q-N), is the Error Term.

USL20 AIC Statistics

The best model, using the Akaike Information Criterion AIC Statistic, is the model with World System Input, although it is unstable and the other models have overlapping Confidence Intervals. The BAU model is stable as is the US-Input model.

USL20 BAU Model

In the BAU model (above) and the other models (excpet the RW), the Technological Coefficient, F[1,1], captures Learning By Doing.

USL20 Model

WL20 Model

 

WL20 Poverty Scenarios

This Page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but the results of the graphic above make it clear that predictions for Poverty in the World-System are better than in the United  States!

Notes

World Bank Poverty Reports (not very reassuring) From 1990 to 2026, the total number of people worldwide living in extreme poverty declined from around 2.3 billion to 811 million, each trying to survive on less than $3 per day. The sharp decline over this period was largely driven by robust, broad-based economic growth in East Asia and South Asia.

Over the last decade, however, global poverty reduction has slowed substantially. This slowdown is due to a combination of interconnected crises, including sluggish economic growth, high levels of debt, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict and fragility, and severe weather-related shocks.

These overlapping crises have hit low-income countries the hardest. At the current pace of progress, it could take decades to eradicate extreme poverty.

Extreme poverty has become increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, and places affected by conflict and fragility. Although a necessary condition, economic growth is not enough to break the cycle of poverty. Stronger foundational investments in infrastructure, human capital, and institutions are critical to ensure people can climb the socioeconomic ladder and escape extreme poverty.

 

USL20 Poverty Scenarios

The video below was another in a long line of crazy pronouncements from US President Donald Trump but does the US have the best poverty numbers? That's easy to check.

The graphic above plots SI.POV.DDAY for the US from the World Development Indicators (black line prior to 2010). The US did have a brief reduction in Poverty around 2010 but now we are back to Business as Usual (BAU). Like a lot of other boasts, no one knows what President Trump is talking about. However, even if not accurate, it raises the question about what to expect for the future (since no one seems to believe that Trump cares much about Poverty or the Poor).

In prior posts (here and here) I've presented forecasts for US Hardship and Poverty that (1) were not very reassuring and (2) did not suggest any policy options. In this post, I will present and discuss some Poverty Scenarios based on different drivers for policy. The graphic above presents six possible future scenarios for SI.POV.DDAY from the World Development Indicators.

The TECH models indirectly address the current concern of the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment, that is, taking away jobs. The BAU (Business as Usual) and RW (Random Walk)  describe two options for a Benevolent Neglect Policy (see below). The USL20-Input model allows the US economy to generate whatever level of economic progress it produces in terms of poverty reduction (it doesn't). The WL20-Input lets trends in development of the World System (which appears to be doing a better job of Poverty reduction) determine levels of poverty.

• Business as Usual (BAU) turns out to be one of the best models given the AIC Statistics (see below).
• Random Walk (RW) the muddling-through model assumes that random attempts to reduce poverty might eventually find a solution.
• TECH Efficiency (TECHE) assumes that attempts to manipulate the intensive coefficients in the Kaya Impact model will affect poverty (Technical efficiency could reduce Poverty but it doesn't look like that is happening in the US especially in the age of AI).
• WL20-Input assumes that keeping US Poverty in line with the World-System will at least ensure that Poverty remains at world-wide acceptable levels.
• USL20 Input assumes that growth in the US Capitalist economy provides the best way to reduce poverty (in the US, increasing poverty is just part of the Capitalist system).
• TECH Productivity (TECHP) assumes that Technical Productivity (Solow-Swan Economic Model) is the primary driver of economic growth and poverty reduction (it isn't).

The best models, in terms of keeping poverty at existing levels, are the BAU and RW (benevolent neglect, see below) models. All the other models raise US Poverty above current levels. 

        None of the models considered will Reduce Poverty in the US.

Notes

Benevolent Neglect

From Google AI:

USL20 Poverty AIC Statistics

All the AIC Confidence intervals are overlapping so it is hard to pick one model as the winner.

USL20 Poverty BAU Model

At least under the BAU model, Poverty in the US is stable (I'm not sure this is a positive finding and so much for Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty).

 

Is the US Flawed Democracy?

This Page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Notes

• The Economist Democracy Index published by the British media company the Economist Group is an index measuring the quality of democracy across the world. This quantitative and comparative assessment is centrally concerned with democratic rights and democratic institutions. The methodology for assessing democracy used in this democracy index is according to the Economist Intelligence Unit which is part of the Economist Group, a UK-based private company, which publishes the weekly newspaper The Economist.

Economist Democracy Index