World-System (1960-2010) Stabilizing the Brazilian BAU Economy

 Stabilize the (EF+HDI-CO2-Q) Environmental Controller

Stabilize the System

Notes

Exercise

Ex1: See if you can find a way to stabilize the BRL20_BAU model without creating collapse?

Wikipedia

• Tariffs in Trump II
• Economy of Brazil
• History of Brazil
• Politics of Brazil
  
  
• Deforestation in Brazil
• Climate Change in Brazil
• Energy in Brazil
• Unemployment in Brazil
• Science and Technology in Brazil
• Military Dictatorship in Brazil

BRL20 Measurement Model

Three state space components explain 99% of the variance in the BRL20 indicators variables: BR1 = (Growth), BR2 = (LU+KOF-Q-HDI), Unemployment-Globalization Controller and BR3 = (EF+HDI-CO2-Q) Environmental Controller.

A time plot of the BRL20 BAU model (above) shows that the growth component (BR1) seems to be reaching a steady after 2010. The Unemployment-Globalization Controller (BR2) reached a peak around 2000. And, the Environmental Controller (BR3) collapsed after 2000.

BRL20 BAU Model

The BRL20 BAU model (System Matrix above) is unstable and has one clearly unstable controller, the the Environmental Controller (BR3).

BRL20 AIC Statistics

The AIC Statistics are not entirely clear cut for the BRL20 model. There is a strong Random Walk (RW) model and the BAU model is in second place. However, the stable models are the Latin American Regional Model (LAC) and the China Model (CN). Some other versions of the US model are also competitors (I'll cover these in future posts).

You can inspect the BRL20 LAC Input model and the BRL20 US_LM Input model along with the BRL20 BAU model on the Google sites.