World-System (1960-2010) Argentina Takes a Random Walk

 

In a prior post (here), I investigated the Geopolitical Policy Space for the Economy of Argentina and explored President Javier Milei's use of Shock Therapy to transition Argentina to a Free-Market Economy without Government Planning. But, is there evidence that Shock Therapy actually works or is it just a pretext to destroy institutions and create anarchy? In this post, I explore the question for the Economy of Argentina.

In general, the ChatGPT AI System doesn't report that Shock Therapy has been very successful (above). But what happens when it is unsuccessful? My argument is that Shock Therapy takes the country on a Random Walk (RW) where the outcomes are unpredictable (graphic at the beginning of this post). For Argentina, using the ARL20 BAU model,  there is a 3 in 10 chance of a positive result and a 70% chance of failure (declining systemic growth)--not very good odds.

You can experiment yourself with the  ARL20 BAU model creating various types of Random Walk Models with the instructions in the code.

Notes

Examples:

• Is the US Presidential Election a Random Walk?
• Trump Takes the US On a Random Walk
• Mexico Takes a Random Walk
• What We've Learned about Economic Bubbles
• A Random Walk Among the Undead
• The Drunkards Walk and the Moment of Truth
• What Caused the Financial Crisis
• Policy Models, Randomness and Free Will
• The Deficit and the 2012 Federal Budget Overview
• The Edge of Chaos in Switzerland