The United Kingdom (UK) joined the European union (EU) in 1973 and left in 2020. From the standpoint of Macro-Systems analysis (rather than Political Philosophy) (1) What were material economic conditions during the 1973-2020 EU period and (2) What would have happened if Britain had stayed in the EU (the primary counterfactual). In this post, I'm going to approach these two questions in terms of Hardship, Financialization and Overall Growth of the UK Economy as measured by indexes created using data from the World Development Indicators.
From the time plots above, during the EU Membership period (1972-2020) Hardship (HARD1) increased, Financialization (FINZ1) increased and Overall Economic Growth (UK1) increased. Had Britain not left the EU, Hardship would have been reduced below 1960 levels, Financialization would have peaked in 2030 and declined afterward and the a Steady-State Economy would have been reached around 2030.
In other words, Britain gave up on the EU Project before the benefits would have been realized. The rest of this post explains how this Counterfactual Conclusion was reached.
Notes
Hardship Measurement Model (HARD)
Financialization Measurement Model (FINZ)
UKL20 Measurement Model
EUL20 Measurement Model
EUL20 TECHP Model
UKL20 EU Input
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