While Britain was part of the EU (1973-2020), there was a long-run increase in Hardship (see the Hardship Measurement Model below and the Phase Space above) that started to stabilize after 1990. However, as the systems (both Britain and the EU) approach a steady state, there will be increasing cycles of Hardship that are characteristic of Steady-State Economies at equilibrium.
Cycles of Hardship, if they are allowed to happen, will be interpreted as Political Failure and will result in Political Instability.
You can run the UKL20 Model using R-code on my Google Site. The model is an unstable, Moving Equilibrium model that can be easily stabilized (see instructions in the code). For more of my posts on Great Britain, see Blog Roll: The United Kingdom. For more information about how the State Space models see Blog ROll: Dynamic Component Models. FOr more information about data sources and Systems Theory, see the Boiler Plate.
Notes
Kalman, R.E. (1980) A system-theoretic critique of dynamic economic models.
Hardship Measurement Model (HARD)
Where data were available in the World Development Indicators (WDI), the variables above were used to construct three independent components that explain 97.7% of the variation in the indicators.
The first component, HARD1, explained 75% of the variation and was a relatively equal weighting of all the indicators. The second independent component, HARD2, explaining about 20% of the variation, and was a complex Inequality-Male Infant Mortality-Unemployment, Household Expenditure historical controller. The third independent component, HARD3, was a Family Work-Inequality-Male Infant Mortality historical controller that explained 3% of the remaining variation for a total of 97.7% of the variance explained using Principal Components Analysis (PCA).
From the time plots, all the components were stabilizing by 2014.
UKL20 HARD Model
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