Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Austerity, Growth and Debt in Italy




This page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but you can go ahead an explore the Questions presented blow using Wikipedia links and State-Space Models.

In a previous post (here) I reported a chatGPT model that links Austerity (AUST), Economic Growth (GROWTH), Debt (DEBT) and Interest Rates (i)--graphic above. The State-Space models below test this Causal Model.



Notes

Run the ITL20 model in R-code (here). Information on how the State-Space models were constructed and data sources is available in the Boiler Plate. For more posts see Blog Roll: Italy:

Questions

  1. Do you think Italy is heading for a Debt Crisis?
  2. What will happen if the Italian Economy experiences a strong, negative shock?
  3. Can Italy "Grow out of" a Debt Crisis if it get's into one?
  4. How much would an Italian Debt Crisis affect the European Union?
  5. If Italy experiences a Debt Crisis will will it (1) increase Austerity and (2) will that make the Debt crisis worse or better?

Wikipedia Links


Austerity (AUST) Measurement Model







Debt Crisis (DEBT) Measurement Model







Debt Crisis (DEBT) AIC


Austerity (AUST) AIC





Debt Crisis-Austerity (DEBT-AUST) Model





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