Has Human Development Stagnated?

 

The 2025 UN Human Development Report notes that the Human Development Index (HDI) has been stagnating for most countries in the World-System. A forecast from the WL20 Model (above) makes the same prediction with narrow 98% Prediction Intervals.

Notes

Country Distribution of the HDI Index

The highest level of HDI is in Norway while the lowest is in Niger.  The World System is right in the middle while the US is in the top of the distribution (but has been loosing ground over the Long Twentieth Century). Notice that the UN HDI index is highly correlated with my HDI index and also appears to be reaching a steady state.

WL20 HDI Measurement Model

Two components of my constructed HDI index (constructed with Principal Components)  explain 99.8% of the variation in the indicators. HDI1 is a measure of overall growth in the indicators. HD2 is an historical controller balancing Life Expectancy against gorwth in the other indicators.

WL20 HDI Codes

The definition of codes in my WL20 HDI index is presented above.

WL20 HDI BAU Model

The WL20_HDI BAU model is stable and, from the graphic at the beginning of the article, reaches a steady state around 2100. The growth rate for my HDI index has been slowing since after 2000.

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