Why MAGA Geopolitics?

 

Is there any sense to the Trump Administrations Geopolitical actions: Insulting Allies, threatening to Invade Greenland, capturing the president of Venezuela, joining Israel to wage war against Iran, threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, etc., etc.? Certainly there are lots of reasons at different levels of analysis,*** but what about the World-System level of analysis?

My argument is that the MAGA movement is a response to the Decline of American hegemonic power in the World-System.

In this post, I'm going to explore the US Decline hypothesis.

The graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals)** from the USL20 Model driven by World System Input (W-Input). The model predicts growth-and-collapse, with collapse starting around 2060 (although growth rates start declining after 2010).

On the other hand, the graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals) from the USL20 Model BAU model. I interpret the Business-as-Usual (BAU) model as the System Theoretic implementation of the MAGA geopolitical agenda ("Go It Alone" with no input from other countries, regions or the World System). Notice first that the prediction intervals are much, much wider that the W-Input model. There is still a small probability of hegemonic collapse (the lower 98% prediction interval). In other words, the MAGA vision is exponential growth forever with only a slight chance, if any, for collapse. Given the width of the  USL20 Model BAU model prediction intervals, however, it is a very risky strategy. Donald Trump, at least, is someone who demonstrates a very high tolerance (if not complete disdain) for risk.

You can run the various USL20 Models on my Google Drive.

Notes

** US1 is an equal weighting of all the indicators variables defining the US State Space and created using Principal Components Analysis (PCA)--see the Boiler Plate.

*** Trump's declining mental health, a strong strain of stupidity in American politics, a new stage of Crony Capitalism, the extremist coalition that shapes Right-Wing politics in the US, etc. etc.