Apr 21, 2026 From the perspective of Europe, the current US Decline is larger than just the Trump Administration (video above).
Is there any sense to the Trump Administration's Geopolitical actions: Insulting Allies, threatening to Invade Greenland, capturing the president of Venezuela, joining Israel to wage war against Iran, threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, blockading the Straight of Hormuz, etc., etc.? Certainly there are lots of reasons at different levels of analysis,*** but what about the World-System level of analysis?
My argument is that the MAGA movement is a response to the Decline of American hegemonic power in the World-System.
In this post, I'm going to explore the US Decline hypothesis.
The graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals)** from the USL20 Model driven by World System Input (W-Input). The model predicts growth-and-collapse, with collapse starting around 2060 (attractor path growth rates have been declining since around 2010).
On the other hand, the graphic above shows a growth forecast (US1 with prediction intervals) from the USL20 Model BAU model. I interpret the Business-as-Usual (BAU) model as the System Theoretic implementation of the MAGA geopolitical agenda ("Go It Alone" with no input from other countries, regions or the World System). Notice first that the prediction intervals are much, much wider than the W-Input model. There is still a small probability of hegemonic collapse (the lower 98% prediction interval). In other words, the MAGA vision is exponential growth forever with only a slight chance, if any, for collapse. Given the width of the USL20 Model BAU model prediction intervals, however, it is a very risky strategy. Donald Trump, at least, is someone who demonstrates a very high tolerance (if not complete disdain) for risk.
Notes
** US1 is an equal weighting of all the indicators variables defining the US State Space and created using Principal Components Analysis (PCA)--see the Boiler Plate and below. The system state is defined as "the minimal collection of independent variables (the principal components) that explain the state variable indicators (the measurement model) and the future path of the system (the state space model)".
*** Trump's declining mental health, a strong strain of stupidity in American politics, a new stage of Crony Capitalism, the extremist coalition that shapes Right-Wing politics in the US, etc. etc.
USL20 Measurement Model
The first component, US1 = (Overall Growth) explains 69.8% of the variation in the indicators. Data were taken from the US Historical Statistics and other sources (EF = Ecological Footprint and Globalization = KOF Globalization Index).
WL20 Measurement Model
The first component, W1 = (Overall Growth) explains 87.4% of the variation in the indicators. Data were taken from the World Development Indicators and other sources (TEMP = Global Temperature, Total Footprint and Earths = Ecological Footprint, WorldGlobal = KOF Globalization Index, and LivingPlanet = Living Planet Index).
US1 W-Input State Space System
The System Model is stabilized by World System input.
US1 BAU State Space System
The BAU model is unstable.
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